Elevated Risk for Severe Weather Sunday

There will be an Elevated risk for severe weather today, with the highest risk in Deep Southwestern Ontario. The main time frame for the entire event will be from 6:00 PM to 4:00 AM.

Areas in Deep Southwestern Ontario such as Windsor, Sarnia, Chatham and Wallaceburg area within the Elevated risk. Within these areas, the main threats will be rainfall of 20 to 40 millimetres, the risk for an isolated tornado, wind gusts up to 90 km/h, and hail 2 to 3 centimetres in diameter. Frequent lightning is expected with any thunderstorm. The thunderstorms are expected to begin moving in around 6:00 PM.

As the storms move eastward, they are expected to weaken. Areas including London and Goderich are within the Low risk, with the risk of a tornado significantly lowering, however wind gusts up to 90 km/h may still occur in this area.

The Very Low risk includes Tobermory, Hanover, Kitchener, and Simcoe. These areas are expected to see wind gusts up to 80 km/h.

East of the Very Low risk is the Non-Severe risk area. Thunderstorms are still expected within these areas. There will be the potential for some strong wind gusts, however all other threats will remain below severe levels.

Below is one model showing the expected thunderstorms. The timestamp is for 8:00 PM Sunday. Image courtesy of WeatherBELL.